van Westen, C., Naz, I., van den Bout, B., Flacke, J., Manzella, I., Atun, F., Marr, P., Agmon, G., Ottow, B., Hurlimann, M., Yeditha Kumar, P., Cocuccioni, S., Schollerer, L., Kulakowska, M., Koelle, B., Ermolieva, T. & Twayana R. (2024). Development of a Platform for the Generation, Visualisation and Quantification of Disaster Impact Chains. In: Erberik, M.A., Askan, A., Kockar, M.K. (eds) Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology. ICEES 2023. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 401. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_39

Abstract

There is a lack of publicly available tools for first and second responders and local authorities to evaluate the impact chains of multi-hazard events, with cascading hazards that result in cascading impacts. Within the framework of the EU HORIZON Europe PARATUS project, we are developing an open and online, user-centered methodology and tool for systemic risk assessment, co-designed with stakeholders and addressing physical, socio-economic, and environmental aspects. It will consist of guidelines and lessons learned, links to datasets and tools for multi-hazard risk assessments that consider future scenarios and adaptation measures. We foresee that the PARATUS Platform will have two major blocks: an information service that provides static information (or regularly updated information) and a simulation service, which is a dynamic component where stakeholders can interactively work with the tools in the platform. Based on the analysis of impact chains for historical disaster events we will develop a WIKI with standardized impact chains. These form the basis for the simulation of future events, with particular emphasis on cross-border and cascading impacts. The simulation platform will consists of tools that are dynamic and interactive, and which support the stakeholders to define, analyze and quantify the impact of multi-hazard events, now and under different future scenarios, and to evaluate which risk reduction options would be most suitable.

Magnuszewski, P., Campo, P., Strelkovskii, N. , Fresolone-Caparrós, A. , Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Poledna, S., Rovenskaya, E. , Pajak, M., et al. (2023). The Migration Policy Simulation: Engaging stakeholders in Austria’s migration future by linking an agent-based model with a policy exercise. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19163

Abstract

This report fulfils the ABM2Policy project Deliverable 2.2: A scientific report describing the protocol and outcomes of the migration-focused gamification exercise and the usefulness of an agent-based model for policy assessment. The goals guiding the research of the ABM2Policy project are twofold: i) to advance macroeconomic agent-based model (ABM) methodology for a realistic and verifiable analysis of migration as an external economic shock to the Austrian national economy, and ii) to explore the usefulness of an ABM combined with a gamified user-interface to support the Austrian migration policymaking discussions and to enhance stakeholder engagement. This Deliverable reports on the second project goal. The ABM was ‘gamified’ by developing a model-based policy exercise (PE) in the complex policy setting of climate migration to Austria. The results of the simulations of a macroeconomic ABM informed (role-playing) stakeholder deliberations, and in some instances, consensus emerged on complex climate migration policy issues. The PE brought to the fore the diverse and often conflicting viewpoints regarding migration through a process of discussion and negotiation, which in turn helped the participants understand the complexities of migration issues in the Austrian context. Overall, the PE participants assessed the game to be an effective tool for gaining knowledge and understanding of the policy process on environmental migration. The preliminary trials show promise in combining an ABM with a PE to support stakeholder deliberations on the migration policy process. The next step is to conduct a similar policy exercise with relevant Austrian stakeholders, e.g., political party members and public officials, to inform actual policy processes.

Campo, P., Willaarts, B. , Magnuszewski, P., Giger, T., Ksiazczak, A.M., Brychczynski, H., & Kułakowska, M. (2023). Collaborative Design of Pathways to Sustainability. Guidebook for designing and running in-person workshops. Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.8345513. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19059

Abstract

The guidebook is meant as a practical introduction and step-by-step instruction on how to design and apply the Collaborative Systems Mapping of Sustainable Pathways (CoSMoS) method. The process has been developed to bridge the gap between science, policy, and society. Scientific knowledge about sustainability challenges was used to develop multiple global scenarios.
However, stakeholder engagement in scenario planning is often misunderstood as a way to give expert input to scientists and provide feedback on research results. If scenario efforts are to be useful for policy development, they need to clearly indicate the sphere of control where stakeholders representing specific decision unit(s) can develop robust strategies. The CoSMoS process allows them to develop strategic insights by building on selected representations of real-world structures and processes. The guidebook provides a necessary basis to understand the process so that readers can use it, adapt it to specific circumstances, and successfully execute it.

The guide is an updated version of the ISWEL guidebook on Policy Simulations and is designed as a manual for organisations interested in using Collaborative Systems Mapping of Sustainable Pathways for face-to-face workshops. This includes organisations directly or indirectly involved in the process of policy development, especially in the context of various crises, such as climate emergency, biodiversity loss, rise in populism, and many others. The methodology strongly emphasises the positive, active, and inclusive approaches to co-creating sustainability pathways to desired futures.

Wright, G., Salk, C., Magnuszewski, P., Stefanska, J., Andersson, K., Benavides, J. P., & Chazdon, R. (2023). Conformity and tradition are more important than environmental values in constraining resource overharvest. Plos one, 18(2), e0272366. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272366

Abstract

We present the results of a hybrid research design that borrows from both experimental techniques—experimental games—and observational techniques—surveys—to examine the relationships between basic human values and exposure to natural ecosystems, on the one hand, and collective action for resource governance, on the other. We initially hypothesize that more frequent exposure to forests, and more pro-environmental values will be associated with more conservation action. However, we find that other values—tradition and conformity—are more important than pro-environmental values or exposure to nature. Our results imply that resource governance is likely to be more successful where resource users hold values that facilitate cooperation, not necessarily strong pro-environmental values.

Pajak, M., Magnuszewski, P., Poledna, S., Strelkovskii, N., Rovenskaya, E., Goujon, A., Conte, A., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Fresolone-Caparrós, A., Catalano, M., Campo, P. (2023). A model-based policy exercise to examine climate migration policy in Europe. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18742/1/P13_Fresolone.pdf (poster)

Ringsmuth, A. K., Otto, I. M., van den Hurk, B., Lahn, G., Reyer, C. P., Carter, T. R., Magnuszewski, P., Monasterolo, I., Aerts, J.,  Benzie, M., Campiglio, E., Fronzek, S., Gaupp, F., Jarzabek, L., Klein, R., Knaepen, H., Mechler, R., Mysiak, J., Sillmann, J., Stuparu, D., West, C. (2022). Lessons from COVID-19 for managing transboundary climate risks and building resilience. Climate Risk Management, 35, p. 100395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100395.

Abstract

COVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales via networks of trade, finance, mobility and communication, and to impact hardest on the most vulnerable. However, these complex systems can also facilitate resilience if managed effectively. This review aims to distil lessons related to the transboundary management of systemic risks from the COVID-19 experience, to inform climate change policy and resilience building. Evidence from diverse fields is synthesised to illustrate the nature of systemic risks and our evolving understanding of resilience. We describe research methods that aim to capture systemic complexity to inform better management practices and increase resilience to crises. Finally, we recommend specific, practical actions for improving transboundary climate risk management and resilience building. These include mapping the direct, cross-border and cross-sectoral impacts of potential climate extremes, adopting adaptive risk management strategies that embrace heterogenous decision-making and uncertainty, and taking a broader approach to resilience which elevates human wellbeing, including societal and ecological resilience.

Keywords: COVID-19, Climate change, Complex system, Systemic risk, Resilience

West, C. D., Stokeld, E., Campiglio, E., Croft, S., Detges, A., Duranovic, A., von Jagow, A., Jarząbek, Ł., König, C., Knaepen, H., Magnuszewski, P., Monasterolo, I., & Reyer, C. P. O. (2021). Europe’s cross-border trade, human security and financial connections: a climate risk perspective. In Climate Risk Management (p. 100382). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100382

Abstract

As the impacts of climate change begin to take hold, increased attention is being paid to the consequences that might occur remotely from the location of the initial climatic impact, where impacts and responses are transmitted across one or more borders. As an economy that is highly connected to other regions and countries of the world, the European Union (EU) is potentially exposed to such cross-border impacts. Here, we undertake a macro-scale, risk-focused literature and data review to explore the potential impact transmission pathways between the EU and other world regions and countries. We do so across three distinct domains of interest – trade, human security and finance – which are part of complex socio-economic, political and cultural systems and may contribute to mediate or exacerbate risk exposure. Across these domains, we seek to understand the extent to which there has been prior consideration of aspects of climate-related risk exposure relevant to developing an understanding of cross-border impacts. We also provide quantitative evidence of the extent and strength of connectivity between the EU and other world regions. Our analysis reveals that – within this nascent area of research – there is uncertainty about the dynamics of cross-border impact that will affect whether the EU is in a relatively secure or vulnerable position in comparison with other regions. However, we reveal that risk is likely to be focused in particular ‘hotspots’; defined geographies, for example, that produce materials for EU consumption (e.g. Latin American soybean), hold financial investments (e.g. North America), or are the foci for EU external action (e.g. the Middle East and North Africa region). Importantly, these domains will also interact, and – via the application of a conceptual example of soybean production in Argentina based on a historical drought event – we illustrate that impact and response pathways linked to EU risk exposure may be complex, further heightening the challenge of developing effective policy responses within an uncertain climatic and socioeconomic future.

Keywords: Climate change, EU, European Union, Vulnerability, Transnational impacts, Cascading risk

Kułakowska M., Solińska-Nowak A. (2021) Translating Models into a Game Design. In: Papathanasiou J., Tsaples G., Blouchoutzi A. (eds) Urban Sustainability. Springer Texts in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67016-0_5

Abstract

Authors aim at showing how abstract notions can be translated to game elements without losing their meaning. Authors provide a detailed explanation of the process of translating models of real-life systems into rules and elements of a board game. Furthermore, the authors provide a state-of-the-art on overview of board games that deal with sustainability issues, focusing on their advantages and disadvantage that were identified based on the past research on serious games.

Keywords: Serious game, design, moderator, debriefing, rules

Mochizuki, J., Magnuszewski, P., Pajak, M., Krolikowska, K., Jarzabek, L. and Kulakowska, M., 2021. Simulation games as a catalyst for social learning: The case of the water-food-energy nexus game. Global Environmental Change, 66, p.102204.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102204

Abstract

Role-playing simulations have gained in popularity in recent years as a novel method of engaging researchers and stakeholders in a variety of social and environmental issues. While academic interest has grown on this topic, knowledge remains sparse on the underlying theories that may guide the design of such games. This article introduces a new game design framework – Com­pleC­Sus (Com­plex­ity-Col­lab­o­ra­tion-Sus­tain­abil­ity) – built on the concepts of social learning and procedural rhetoric. We describe and discuss the conceptual basis for our framework, giving a detailed account of its application through the recently developed the Water–Food–Energy Nexus Game (Nexus Game) as an example. We illustrate the process involved in designing the Nexus Game through initial scoping, prototyping, and design decisions, and how game structure and debriefing have been crafted to foster social learning focused on the understanding of the underlying social-ecological system as well as fostering collaboration between stakeholders. We also provide the analysis of qualitative data collected during recent gaming sessions across three continents to evaluate the Nexus Game’s potential learning effects.

Keywords: Role-playing simulation (RPS), Social learning, Procedural rhetoric, Water–energy–food nexus, Nexus game.

Sanon V-P, Toé P, Caballer Revenga J, El Bilali H, Hundscheid LJ, Kulakowska M, Magnuszewski P, Meulenbroek P, Paillaugue J, Sendzimir J, Slezak G, Vogel S, Melcher AH. Multiple-Line Identification of Socio-Ecological Stressors Affecting Aquatic Ecosystems in Semi-Arid Countries: Implications for Sustainable Management of Fisheries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Water. 2020; 12(6):1518. DOI: 10.3390/w12061518

Abstract

Water resources are among the fundamental resources that are the most threatened worldwide by various pressures. This study applied the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework as an innovative tool to better understand the dynamic interlinkages between the different sources of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems in Burkina Faso. The triangulation of evidences from interviews, literature reviews, and strategic simulations shows that several human impacts as well as climate change and its effects (such as the decrease of the water level, and the increase of the surface water temperature) are detrimental to fish productivity, abundance, and average size. Furthermore, the ongoing demographic and nutritional transition is driving cumulative pressures on water and fish resources. In this context, the development of aquaculture could offer alternative livelihoods and help fish stocks in natural ecosystems to recover, thereby reducing fishermen’s vulnerability and easing overfishing pressures. Further, the empowerment of the actors and their participation to reinforce fisheries regulation are required to escape the current “regeneration trap” and to achieve a sustainable management of aquatic ecosystems in Burkina Faso.

Keywords: fisheries management; multiple stressors; stressors interaction; anthropogenic pressures; climate change; DPSIR; strategic simulations; interviews; river systems; Burkina Faso.

Melcher A., R. Ouedraogo, A. Oueda, J Somda, P Toe, J. Sendzimir, G. Slezak, C. Voigt (2020) SUSFISHBook -Sustainable Fisheries and Water Management. Transformation Pathways for Burkina Faso. SUSFISH+ Project Consortium – http://susfish.boku.ac.at/

Abstract

The research projects Sustainable Management of Water and Fish Resources (SUSFISH and SUSFISH+) aim to produce reliable knowledge which can be used to help improve policies, management, research and education so as to make fisheries more sustainable in Burkina Faso. The topics of research include ecology, policies and socioeconomy in fisheries and covers the entire national territory. By producing and institutionalizing knowledge about aquatic ecosystems, water and fisheries management, SUSFISH is helping to build capacities in local fisheries so as to help secure food production, nutrition and development in Burkina Faso. The Project took place in two phases; SUSFISH (2011-2014) and SUSFISH+ (2016-2019). SUSFISH was designed as a partnership between academic, governmental and local organisations in Austria and Burkina Faso. The project is funded through the APPEAR Programm (Austrian Partnership Programme in Higher Education and Research for Development) from the Austrian Development Agency (ADA) and implemented by the OeAD (Austrian Agency for International Cooperation in Education and Research).

Keywords: fisheries management; multiple stressors; stressors interaction; anthropogenic pressures; climate change; DPSIR; strategic simulations; interviews; river systems; Burkina Faso.

Bednarik P, Bayer J, Magnuszewski P, & Dieckmann U (2019). A game of common-pool resource management: Effects of communication, risky environment and worldviews. Ecological Economics 156: 287-292. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.10.004.

Abstract

The ‘tragedy of the commons’ has been investigated for several decades. At its centre is the question whether a common resource will collapse under over-exploitation. The isolated analysis of one resource has many conceptual benefits, yet in reality resources and welfare are intertwined. In this paper, we investigate a situation where a resource which is exploited for profit has the additional feature of protecting against risk. Our main question is whether participants in an experimental game will prioritize such additional feature over maximizing profit and, if so, to what extent. Therefore, we designed a forest-harvesting game: Participants can harvest trees to generate income, and at the same time the forest serves as a protection against floods. Communication has been shown to play a vital role in managing commons. Our second aim is to test the importance of communication when the resource functions as a device of protecting against external risk. Lastly, we introduce a new perspective to the tragedy of the commons literature. Specifically, we investigate how the anthropologically motivated theory of risk perception (often called Cultural Theory) correlates with behaviour in our economic game. We believe that there is much potential in combining insights from these separate disciplines.

Keywords: Tragedy of the commons, social dilemma, cooperation, behavioural experiment, cultural theory

Magnuszewski, P., Jarzabek, L., Keating, A., Mechler, R., French, A., Laurien, F., et al. (2019). The Flood Resilience Systems Framework: from Concept to Application. IDRiM Journal, 9(1), 56-82.

Abstract

Disaster risk is on the increase, burgeoning due to development drivers and barriers to effective risk management. There is an urgent need to understand and effectively tackle these drivers within the disaster-development system. Resilience is a concept with its roots in systems analysis, which if embraced can foster the transformative change needed to meet this challenge. This paper demonstrates how the Flood Resilience System (FLORES) conceptual framework has been operationalized and applied with practitioners in the field in four distinct ways.

Keywords: Disaster resilience; systems analysis; disaster risk management.

Papathanasiou, J., Armenia, S., Barnabè, F., Carlini C., Ciobanu, N., Digkoglou,P., Jarzabek, L., Kulakowska, M., Lanzuisi, A., Morfoulaki, M., Myrovali, G., Onofrei, C., Pompei, A., Scolozzi, R. , Tsaples, G. (2019) Game based learning on urban sustainability: the “SUSTAIN” project. EDULEARN19 Proceedings. ISBN: 978-84-09-12031-4. DOI:10.21125/edulearn.2019.2293.

Abstract

No abstract available

Wada Y, Vinca A , Parkinson S, Willaarts B , Magnuszewski P, Mochizuki J , Mayor B, Wang Y, et al. (2019). Co-designing Indus Water-Energy-Land Futures. One Earth DOI:10.1016/j.oneear.2019.10.006. PDF

Abstract

The Indus River Basin covers an area of around 1 million square kilometers and connects four countries: Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan. More than 300 million people depend to some extent on the basin’s water, yet a growing population, increasing food and energy demands, climate change, and shifting monsoon patterns are exerting increasing pressure. Under these pressures, a “business as usual” (BAU) approach is no longer sustainable, and decision makers and wider stakeholders are calling for more integrated and inclusive development pathways that are in line with achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we propose an integrated nexus modeling framework co-designed with regional stakeholders from the four riparian countries of the Indus River Basin and discuss challenges and opportunities for developing transformation pathways for the basin’s future.

Willaarts, B. , Magnuszewski, P., Palazzo, A. , Parkinson, S., Mayor Rodriguez, B., Vinca, A. , van Dijk, M., & Langan, S. (2019). Bridging the gap across scales in scenario planning: Co-designing water-energy-land visions and pathways in transboundary basins. In: Scenario Forum Conference, 10-13 March 2019, Denver, USA.

Abstract

No abstract available

Magnuszewski P, Królikowska K, Koch A, Pająk M, Allen C, Chraibi V, Giri A, Haak D, et al. (2018). Exploring the Role of Relational Practices in Water Governance Using a Game-Based Approach. Water 10 (3): p. 346. DOI:10.3390/w10030346.

Abstract:

The growing complexity and interdependence of water management processes requires the involvement of multiple stakeholders in water governance. Multi-party collaboration is increasingly vital at both the strategy development and implementation levels. Multi-party collaboration involves a process of joint decision-making among key stakeholders in a problem domain directed towards the future of that domain. However, the common goal is not present from the beginning; rather, the common goal emerges during the process of collaboration. Unfortunately, when the conflicting interests of different actors are at stake, the large majority of environmental multi-party efforts often do not reliably deliver sustainable improvements to policy and/or practice. One of the reasons for this, which has been long established by many case studies, is that social learning with a focus on relational practices is missing. The purpose of this paper is to present the design and initial results of a pilot study that utilized a game-based approach to explore the effects of relational practices on the effectiveness of water governance. This paper verifies the methods used by addressing the following question: are game mechanisms, protocols for facilitation and observation, the recording of decisions and results, and participant surveys adequate to reliably test hypotheses about behavioral decisions related to water governance? We used the “Lords of the Valley” (LOV) game, which focuses on the local-level management of a hypothetical river valley involving many stakeholders. We used an observation protocol to collect data on the quality of relational practices and compared this data with the quantitative outcomes achieved by participants in the game. In this pilot study, we ran the game three times with different groups of participants, and here we provide the outcomes within the context of verifying and improving the methods.

Keywords: serious games; social simulation; social learning; relational practices; river basin management; water governance; multi-party collaboration; stakeholders; experimental social research

Mechler R, McQuistan C, McCallum I, Liu W , Keating A, Magnuszewski P, Schinko T , Laurien F, et al. (2018). Supporting Climate Risk Management at Scale. Insights from the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance Partnership Model Applied in Peru & Nepal. In: Loss and Damage from Climate Change. Eds. Mechler, R., Bouwer, L., Schinko, T. , Surminski, S. & Linnerooth-Bayer, J., pp. 393-424 Cham, Switzerland: Springer. ISBN 978-3-319-72025-810.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_17.

Abstract:

There has been increasing interest in the potential of effective science-society partnership models for identifying and implementing options that manage critical disaster risks “on the ground.” This particularly holds true for debate around Loss and Damage. Few documented precedents and little documented experience exists, however, for such models of engagement. How to organise such partnerships? What are learnings from existing activities and how can these be upscaled? We report on one such partnership, the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance, a multi-actor partnership launched in 2013 to enhance communities’ resilience to flooding at local to global scales. The program brings together the skills and expertise of NGOs, the private sector and research institutions in order to induce transformational change for managing flood risks. Working in a number of countries facing different challenges and opportunities the program uses a participatory and iterative approach to develop sustainable portfolios of interventions that tackle both flood risk and development objectives in synergy. We focus our examination on two cases of Alliance engagement, where livelihoods are particularly being eroded by flood risk, including actual and potential contributions by climate change: (i) in the Karnali river basin in West Nepal, communities are facing rapid on-set flash floods during the monsoon season; (ii) in the Rimac basin in Central Peru communities are exposed to riverine flooding amplified by El Niño episodes. We show how different tools and methods can be co-generated and used at different learning stages and across temporal and agency scales by researchers and practitioners. Seamless integration is neither possible, nor desirable, and in many instances, an adaptive management approach through, what we call, a Shared Resilience Learning Dialogue, can provide the boundary process that connects the different analytical elements developed and particularly links those up with community-led processes. Our critical examination of the experience from the Alliance leads into suggestions for identifying novel funding and support models involving NGOs, researchers and the private sector working side by side with public sector institutions to deliver community level support for managing risks that may go “beyond adaptation.”

Keywords: Flood risk, resilience, science-society partnerships, boundary objects, adaptive management, learning

Mochizuki, J., Magnuszewski, P., & Linnerooth-Bayer, J. (2018). Games for aiding stakeholder deliberation on Nexus policy issues. In Managing Water, Soil and Waste Resources to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals (pp. 93-124). Springer, Cham

Abstract:

Games can provide an effective and replicable space in which stakeholders learn skills necessary for deliberative and pluralist policymaking. These skills are especially important for “nexus” policy issues that are typically characterised by multiple, competing problem frames involving overlapping networks of stakeholders. In this position paper, we describe three serious games that serve as a space for players (stakeholders) and researchers to jointly explore alternative solutions to complex resource management issues: the Water-Food-Energy Nexus Game (Nexus Game); the Narubu Game of Many Voices (Narubu Game); and the Forest Governance Game (Forest Game). The games contain instructive and reflexive mechanisms that prompt players to self-discover common challenges associated with complex nexus issues, including conflicting institutional mandates, social dilemmas, contending worldviews, and plural interpretations of science.

Mochizuki J , Schinko T , Magnuszewski P, Pajak M, Bednar-Friedl B, & Irshaid J (2018). Addressing energy transition gaps in climate and energy model regions of Austria through policy co-design. In: 19. Österreichischer Klimatag, 23 –25 April 2018, Salzburg, Austria.

Abstract:

No abstract available

Palazzo A , van Dijk M, Willaarts B , Magnuszewski P, Mayor Rodriguez B, Burek P , Kahil T , Tang T., et al. (2018). Integrated solutions for water, energy, and land nexus management the Zambezi Basin: stakeholder engagement and modeling. In: 3rd Zambezi Basin Stakeholders’ forum: Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus for Socio-Economic Benefits in the Zambezi River Basin, 8-9 October 2018, Lilongwe, Malawi.

Abstract:

No abstract available

Sendzimir J, Magnuszewski P, & Gunderson L (2018). Adaptive Management of Riverine Socio-ecological Systems. In: Riverine Ecosystem Management. pp. 301-324 Cham: Springer. 10.1007/978-3-319-73250-3_16.

Abstract:

If ongoing change in ecosystems and society can render inflexible policies obsolete, then management must dynamically adapt as a counter to perennial uncertainty. This chapter describes a general synthesis of how to make decision-making more adaptive and then explores the barriers to learning in management. We then describe how one such process, known as adaptive management (AM), has been applied in different river basins, on which basis we discuss AM’s strengths and limitations in various resource management contexts.

Solinska, A., Magnuszewski, P., Curl, M., French, A., Keating, A., Mochizuki, J., … & Jarzabek, L. (2018). An overview of serious games for disaster risk management—prospects and limitations for informing actions to arrest increasing risk. International journal of disaster risk reduction. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.09.001.

Abstract:

This paper reviews serious games/simulations addressing issues related to disaster risk management (DRM) and serving as educational and engagement tools for affected communities, policy-makers, and other stakeholders. Building on earlier research in collecting and classifying serious games, we provide an objective and thorough overview of 45 non-commercial digital and analog gaming activities related to DRM, analyzing their characteristics, target groups, portrayed hazards, and possible DRM skills development. Moreover, realizing the need for a more reliable and scientific approach to testing serious games’ effectiveness in contributing to DRM, we explore the categories of objectives of existing activities, and collect qualitative and quantitative evidence (players’ feedback, quantitative surveys, scientific articles on the analyzed games etc.) supporting their assessment. Further, we identify the prospects and limitations of gaming in the broader context of DRM, and diagnose existing niches that could be exploited by game producers and researchers to develop more user-tailored game design and reliable evaluation methodology. The research reveals that DRM-related serious games/simulations offer a rich social experience with players collaboratively solving a problem. With a capacity of reaching diverse audiences (embracing adults, children, experts and communities) and of realistically simulating disaster reality, serious games/simulations may assist DRM, especially in the realm of disaster risk awareness raising, identifying hazards, undertaking preventive actions, empathy-triggering and perspective-taking. At the same time, the research displays the scarcity of quantitative and qualitative research into the games’ effectiveness. Therefore more detailed and structured study is called for in assessing these outcomes.

Keywords: Disaster risk management (DRM), disaster risk communication, natural hazards, serious games, simulations

Walsh, A., Brady, M., Magnuszewski, P. (2018). Ostrom game theory applied to financial services bonuses and policy improvements. The Journal of Financial Perspectives 5 (1), 6-20.

Abstract:

Elinor Ostrom’s work on sustaining common-pool resources (CPRs) has had a profound impact on the management of natural resources. It has had very little impact on the regulation of the financial services industry. The purpose of this article, which focuses in particular on bonus payments, is to argue that this neglect may result in a number of tools available to regulators, industry and the public being underexploited. Coercively powered, external rule-setting and monitoring authorities appear to have insufficient ability on their own to sustain a natural resource system. Using a forest sustainability game as a tool (a common technique in natural resource management flexed to include bonus payments) and undertaken in EY’s offices in Dublin, we argue that business students and finance professionals seem to behave very similarly to exploiters of natural resources. Given that degrees of self-governance, cooperation between exploiters, self-monitoring and self-sanctioning are considered critical to sustaining natural resources, this paper considers whether the same may be true of financial services. We use this framework to comment on recent work on modeling the effect of bonus caps and bonus deferral on bankers’ risk taking.

Liu W , Magnuszewski P, Yang Y, & Chen N (2017). Navigating Conservation-Development-Disaster Complexities in Social-Ecological Systems Using Role-play Serious Gaming. In: Resilience 2017, 20-23 August 2017, Stockholm Waterfront Congress Centre, Sweden.

Abstract

Globally natural disaster and climate change risk is on the rise, so does the uncertainty of their impact at local/regional scales. The increasing uncertainty in disaster and climate hazards creates daunting challenges for conservation and development, especially in Global Biodiversity Hotspots. Building resilience with limited resources in these complex Social-Ecological Systems require critical understanding of stakeholder cognitive and decision-making processes.
Serious Game (aka social simulation) emerges as a new method to understand stakeholder decision-making and interaction under uncertainty and how resilience/vulnerability emerges as a result of such dynamic interactions. Simulation games is an effective education and communication tool in building soft skill capacities on communication, coordination, leadership, negotiation and collective action, which the current capacity-building system often do not provide.

Daszyńska-Żygadło, K., Pająk, M. (2016). Educating About Complexity and Sustainability Through Serious Games. In: Wach-Kąkolewicz, A., Muffoletto, R. (eds). (2016). Perspectives on Computer Gaming in Higher Education. Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe Poznań 2016. ISBN: 978-83-7986-116-3.

Abstract

Our paper aims to present the problem of sustainable development education in light of the complexity of the issue and potential usage of serious games in the learning process. We postulate that dilemmas connected with sustainable development arise from the complexity and interactions, both current and historical, between stakeholders and other people or institutions involved in the process and environment. Such coupled issues create challenges in the education process that can be addressed through simulations and serious games.

Dubel, A. (red.) (2016). Wspólne zarządzanie przyrodą: partycypacyjne mapowanie terenów chronionych na obszarze Natura 2000 Dolinki Jurajskie PLH120005 [Joint management nature : participatory mapping of protected areas within the Natura 2000 Dolinki Jurajskie]. Kraków: Stowarzyszenie Centrum Rozwiązań Systemowych. ISBN: 978-83-64365-07-2.

Abstract

No abstract available

Magnuszewski, P. (red.) (2016). Gry dla zrównoważonego rozwoju. Przez doświadczenie i refleksję do zrozumienia i odpowiedzialności. Centrum Rozwiązań Systemowych Wrocław 2016. IBSN: 978-83-64365-08-9.

Abstract

Oddajemy do rąk czytelniczek i czytelników publikację, w której pragniemy podzielić się naszymi doświadczeniami wykorzystania gier w edukacji dla zrównoważonego rozwoju. Chcemy w niej również przedstawić dobre praktyki oraz pomocne narzędzia w skutecznym przybliżaniu tematów takich jak m.in. zmiany klimatu, zarządzanie dobrami wspólnymi czy też bioróżnorodność. Publikacja ta jest adresowana zarówno do osób, które w swojej działalności edukacyjnej używają gier, jak i dla tych, które dopiero rozważają włączenie ich do swoich działań.

Dubel A., Długofalowe scenariusze strategicznego rozwoju w Polsce sektorów mających wpływ na zasoby wodne, Centrum Rozwiązań Systemowych, Kraków 2015. ISBN: 978-83-64365-06-5.

Abstract

No abstract available

Koch, A., Potkański, T. (red.) (2015). Narzędzie zwiększające partycypację w zarządzaniu miastem. Gra o budżet. Centrum Rozwiązań Systemowych. ISBN: 978-83-64365-05-8.

Abstract

The purpose of this publication is to address the issue of civic engagement in city budgeting; to present best practices regarding this topic (from Poland and other countries); and to describe an innovative tool for improving citizen engagement: Gra o Budzet (Budget Game). The publication is targeted towards local government officers, non-governmental organizations, and community activists who want to learn more about tools that can be used for citizen activation. We try to outline some of the important issues regarding citizen participation and the implementation of participatory budgeting in Polish cities. We pose a question: why more than a half of Poles shows no interest in the problems of their cities, municipalities or even their closest neighborhoods? And moreover, how can we change that? Finally, we present the gaming tool that can help citizens and local authorities to pursue discussion about city budget. We also provide all necessary information on how to use this tool: description of the method, and detailed instructions for preparing and conducting the game in every city and municipality in Poland. This publication was created as a part of the Budget Game. Activation of Lublin and Swidnik Citizens in the Field of Participatory Budgeting project that promotes citizen participation in the process of deciding on city budget. The project was realized between 2014 and 2016. It is implemented by the Centre for Systems Solutions, in partnership with the Municipality of Lublin, the Association of Polish Cities, Municipality of Swidnik and Icelandic Citizens Foundation, as a part of Citizens for Democracy programme, financed by the EEA Funds. Main part of this project is a simulation game inspired by Budget Games created by Innovation Games® to help citizens and local authorities of the city of San Jose (USA) to pursue discussion about city budgeting. The game was then adapted to the Polish reality to increase the sense of co-responsibility in regard of city finances in citizens of Lublin and Swidnik.

Królikowska, K. (red.) (2015). Zielona Infrastruktura. Studium przypadku Domaszków-Tarchalice. Centrum Rozwiązań Systemowych. Wrocław. ISBN: 978-83-64365-04-1.

Abstract

Studium przypadku Domaszków-Tarchalice było elementem międzynarodowego projektu Catalysing Green Infrastructures – Increasing green space in flood prone areas (Wzmacnianie zielonej infrastruktury – Zwiększanie obszarów zielonych w obszarach powodziowych) realizowanego w ramach europejskiego konsorcjum Climate Knowledge and Innovation Community. Celem tego projektu było wypracowanie użytecznych metod partycypacyjnego rozwoju zielonej infrastruktury na obszarach zagrożonych powodzią. Zielona infrastruktura może stanowić alternatywę lub przynajmniej uzupełnienie dla tradycyjnych, technicznych (“szarych”) metod ochrony przeciwpowodziowej. Ponadto dostarcza ona wielu ważnych usług ekosystemów, jak retencja wody i wpływ na klimat. Dzięki zielonej infrastrukturze przestrzeń i krajobraz stają się bardziej przyjazne dla mieszkańców i atrakcyjne dla turystyki i rekreacji, co może wspomagać lokalną gospodarkę.1 W ramach studium przypadku Domaszków-Tarchalice wykonano analizę usług ekosystemów, modelowanie przepływu wód powodziowych oraz zorganizowano warsztatowe spotkanie z interesariuszami poświęcone kierunkom rozwoju tego obszaru w oparciu o zieloną infrastrukturę i usługi ekosystemów.

Costanza R., Chichakly K., Dale V., Farber S., Finnigan D., Grigg K., … & Ziegler R. (2014) Simulation games that integrate research, entertainment, and learning around ecosystem services. Ecosystem Services, 10, 195-201.

Abstract

Humans currently spend over 3 billion person-hours per week playing computer games. Most of these games are purely for entertainment, but use of computer games for education has also expanded dramatically. At the same time, experimental games have become a staple of social science research but have depended on relatively small sample sizes and simple, abstract situations, limiting their range and applicability. If only a fraction of the time spent playing computer games could be harnessed for research, it would open up a huge range of new opportunities. We review the use of games in research, education, and entertainment and develop ideas for integrating these three functions around the idea of ecosystem services valuation. This approach to valuation can be seen as a version of choice modeling that allows players to generate their own scenarios taking account of the trade-offs embedded in the game, rather than simply ranking pre-formed scenarios. We outline a prototype game called “Lagom Island” to test the proposition that gaming can be used to reveal the value of ecosystem services. Our prototype provides a potential pathway and functional building blocks for approaching the relatively untapped potential of games in the context of ecosystem services research.

Dubel, A.A., Jamontt-Skotis, M, Królikowska, K., Dubel, K., Czapski, M. (2013). Metody Rozwiązywania konfliktów ekologicznych obszar Natura 2000. ISBN: 978-83-64365-01-0.

Abstract

No abstract available

Walsh, A., P. Magnuszewski, A. Slodka-Turner. 2012. Can Banks Self-Regulate? Voluntary Agreements, Intrinsic Motivation and Games. Economic Affairs 32 (3): 58–64.

Abstract

This article argues that lessons on how to achieve a sustainable financial system can be learnt from the work done on sustainable commons (on common‐pool resources – CPRs – where there is no ‘tragedy of the commons’). Existing approaches to financial regulation may not give proper attention to available solutions. The article proposes that innovative solutions could be tested using experimental methods commonly used in CPRs: repeat run, feedback driven games.

Ostasiewicz, K., Radosz, A., Magnuszewski, P (2011). Complex systems: multistability and social, ecological and social-ecological systems, Monografia, PRINTPAP, Łódź 2011, ISBN 978-83-62098-93-4.

Abstract

No abstract available

Ostasiewicz, P. Magnuszewski (2011). The concept of resilience and its application to a certain socio-economical model. Pragmata Tes Oikonomias, Nr IV, 2011, Częstochowa, s. 203-216.

Abstract

In recent decades, there is a growing interest in ecological and social systems that exhibit multistability, i.e., having alternative stable states. The early hints, that real ecosystems and socioeconomical systems can exhibit such properties, originated from theoretical models [8, 13]. Although regime shifts are very easy to show and explore in models, it took time and efforts to prove experimentally that such phenomena occur in the real world [15, 20, 22]. Moreover, manipulation experiments have also provided direct evidence for alternative stable states [21]. Probably the most famous case of a bistable system is the case of alternative equilibria in shallow lakes [20]. Over certain ranges of nutrient concentration shallow lakes have two alternative equilibria: a clear state dominated by macrophytic aquatic vegetation, and a turbid state with high algal biomass.

Sendzimir, J., C. P Reij, P. Magnuszewski. 2011. Rebuilding resilience in the Sahel: regreening in the Maradi and Zinder regions of Niger. Ecology and Society 16 (3): 1.

Abstract

The societies and ecosystems of the Nigerien Sahel appeared increasingly vulnerable to climatic and economic uncertainty in the late twentieth century. Severe episodes of drought and famine drove massive livestock losses and human migration and mortality. Soil erosion and tree loss reduced a woodland to a scrub steppe and fed a myth of the Sahara desert relentlessly advancing southward. Over the past two decades this myth has been shattered by the dramatic reforestation of more than 5 million hectares in the Maradi and Zinder Regions of Niger. No single actor, policy, or practice appears behind this successful regreening of the Sahel. Multiple actors, institutions and processes operated at different levels, times, and scales to initiate and sustain this reforestation trend. We used systems analysis to examine the patterns of interaction as biophysical, livelihood, and governance indicators changed relative to one another during forest decline and rebound. It appears that forest decline was reversed when critical interventions helped to shift the direction of reinforcing feedbacks, e.g., vicious cycles changed to virtuous ones. Reversals toward deforestation or reforestation were preceded by institutional changes in governance, then livelihoods and eventually in the biophysical environment. Biophysical change sustained change in the other two domains until interventions introduced new ideas and institutions that slowed and then reversed the pattern of feedbacks. However, while society seems better at coping with economic or climatic shock or stress, the resilience of society and nature in the Maradi/Zinder region to global sources of uncertainty remains a pressing question in a society with one of the highest population growth rates on Earth.

Stefanska, J., P. Magnuszewski, J. Sendzimir, P. Romaniuk, T. Taillieu, A. Dubel, Z. Flachner, P. Balogh. 2011. A Gaming Exercise to Explore Problem-Solving versus Relational Activities for River Floodplain Management. Environmental Policy and Governance 21 (6): 454-471.

Abstract

This paper describes a new gaming tool that allows players (e.g. water managers and farmers) to explore the consequences of their interactions in managing river floodplains. To facilitate the process of creating and testing new policies that would help to accommodate disordering events, e.g. floods, we developed a system dynamics model of floodplain agriculture that drives an interactive game. The Floodplain Management Game can be used as an educational resource, knowledge elicitation technique or transition management tool concerning agriculture and river management. The key feature of this game is that it unites technical (problem-solving) and relational issues in one game. Without exception, in multiple venues it has proven a useful tool for participants to experience the challenges of policy-making for managing rivers as well as for floodplain agriculture and for scientists to examine how stakeholders make decisions about such options.

Keywords: simulation games, floodplains, adaptive management, social learning, communications laboratory

Kronenberg, J., Bergier, T. (red.) (2010). Wyzwania zrównoważonego rozwoju w Polsce. Fundacja Sendzimira, Kraków.

Abstract

No abstract available

Dubel A., Jamontt-Skotis M., Królikowska K., Stefańska J., Banrowska A. (2010). Skuteczne zarządzanie obszarami Natura 2000. Stowarzyszenie Centrum Rozwiązań Systemowych. GS Kraków. ISBN: 978-83-64365-00-3.

Abstract

No abstract available

Janutka, A., Magnuszewski, P. (2010). Opinion structure changes in non equilibrium model of social impact. Complexity 15 (6): 27–33.

Abstract

We study relaxational dynamics of social systems within a kinetic binary‐choice (Ising‐like) model. On the basis of the assumptions of the deterministic social‐impact model in discrete time introduced by Nowak et al. (Psychol Rev 1990, 97, 362), we construct a probabilistic, continuous‐time description. Although there are no stationary (equilibrium) solutions of the model in general, the presence of strong leaders maintaining their opinions for a long‐time and strongly influencing other individuals leads to quasi‐stable (steady‐state) solutions. Analyzing closed individual chains, we discuss changes of the individual‐opinion structure while varying a global parameter of the model. Such a kind of a “critical” behaviour is possible although there is no true phase equilibrium. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2010

Ostasiewicz, K, Magnuszewski, P. (2010). Agricultural sustainability in a simple social-ecological system. Operations Research and Decisions 20, s. 81-94.

Abstract

There is a growing consciousness of the complexity and universality of interactions between social and ecological systems. Here we investigate a simple social-ecological model of land cultivation. It is shown that even very simple rules of land-use and an ecosystem’s dynamics can generate a variety of possible stationary states. In particular, the possibility of the existence of “desirable” stationary states is examined. These desirable states are understood in the sense of sustainable development, that is, profitable for farmers and non-degrading for ecosystems. It turns out that the existence of such states can depend strongly on the parameters that are under a government’s control, e.g. subsides, and others. Although real systems can reveal much more complex and counterintuitive behaviour, such a “toy model” can at least give some insight, help to realize the range of possible scenarios and improve our intuition about what might happen in real systems.

Krolikowska, K., Dunajski, A., Magnuszewski, P., Sieczka, M. 2009 Institutional and environmental issues in land reclamation systems maintenance. Environmental Science & Policy 12(8): 1137-1143.

Abstract

The research reported here addresses the issues of institutional, social and land-use change with reference to land reclamation system maintenance in the Odra River Valley, SW Poland. Land reclamation systems are a network of different types of water control infrastructure and they require the collective maintenance effort of all users in order to fulfill drainage and irrigation functions properly. The example of decline in these systems in Polish rural areas brings together environmental and economic issues, as well as social dimensions of change from socialist top-down to democratic bottom-up decision-making and management. After 1989 the financing and management of land reclamation services by the State greatly decreased and a duty of LRS maintenance was actually transferred from government to individual land users. Farmers were not ready to take this responsibility and the whole system declined. The analysis presented in this article is a contribution to a better understanding of non-functioning land reclamation systems. Some recommendations for the future improvement of these systems are also provided.

Sendzimir, J., P. Magnuszewski, Z. Flachner, P. Balogh, G. Molnar, A. Sarvari, and Z. Nagy. 2008 Assessing the resilience of a river management regime: informal learning in a shadow network in the Tisza River Basin. Ecology and Society 13(1): 11.

Abstract

Global sources of change offer unprecedented challenges to conventional river management strategies, which no longer appear capable of credibly addressing a trap: the failure of conventional river defense engineering to manage rising trends of disordering extreme events, including frequency and intensity of floods, droughts, and water stagnation in the Hungarian reaches of the Tisza River Basin. Extreme events punctuate trends of stagnation or decline in the ecosystems, economies, and societies of this river basin that extend back decades, and perhaps, centuries. These trends may be the long-term results of defensive strategies of the historical river management regime that reflect a paradigm dating back to the Industrial Revolution: “Protect the Landscape from the River.” Since then all policies have defaulted to the imperatives of this paradigm such that it became the convention underlying the current river management regime. As an exponent of this convention the current river management regimes’ methods, concepts, infrastructure, and paradigms that reinforce one another in setting the basin’s development trajectory, have proven resilient to change from wars, political, and social upheaval for centuries. Failure to address the trap makes the current river management regime’s resilience appear detrimental to the region’s future development prospects and prompts demand for transformation to a more adaptive river management regime. Starting before transition to democracy, a shadow network has generated multiple dialogues in Hungary, informally exploring the roots of this trap as part of a search for ideas and methods to revitalize the region. We report on how international scientists joined one dialogue, applying system dynamics modeling tools to explore barriers and bridges to transformation of the current river management regime and develop the capacity for participatory science to expand the range of perspectives that inform, monitor, and revise learning, policy, and the practice of river management.

Krolikowska K, Magnuszewski P, Magnuszewska J, & Sendzimir J (2008). Dynamics of sustainable development – Karkonosze Mountains and Odra River Valley in Poland. In: Learning for a Sustainable Future: Innovative Solutions from the Baltic Sea Region. Eds. Rohweder, L. & Virtanen, A., Uppsala: Baltic University Press. ISBN 978-91-976494-3

Abstract

No abstract available

Damurski, J., Bergier, T., Liszka, M. (eds) (2007), Partycypacyjne planowanie gospodarki ściekowej w Dziewinie, Wrocław: Centrum Rozwiązań Systemowych.

Abstract

No abstract available

Krolikowska K, Kronenberg J, Maliszewska K, Sendzimir J, Magnuszewski P, Dunajski A, & Slodka A (2007). Role-playing simulation as a communication tool in community dialogue: Karkonosze Mountains case study. Simulation & Gaming 38 (2): 195-210. DOI:10.1177/1046878107300661.

Abstract

This article describes a process of role-playing simulation (RPS) as it was used during an educational exercise in community dialogue in the Karkonosze Mountains region of southwest Poland. Over the past decade Karkonosze National Park, a regional tourist magnet, has provided an excellent example of environmental conflict emerging from the tensions between nature protection and economic development. The project we describe herein, a course called “Dynamics of Sustainable Development,” was designed to give students the direct experience of challenges in solving difficult social-ecological problems with many linked conflicts and tensions. We focused on RPS to emphasize factors crucial to compromise. Because teaching students about conflict solving was our main objective, the second indirect but expected experience was to stimulate discussions among real stakeholders. Although RPS itself was not performed in the presence of the real stakeholders, their participation was ensured by inviting them for a final public debate where they got a chance to express their opinions about what they heard from the students. RPS offered the course participants not only a closer look at the conflict in the Karkonosze related to sustainable development, but also an insight into the general psychological background and evolution of conflicts.

Martin, L., Magnuszewski, P., Sendzimir, J., Rydzak, F., Krolikowska, K., Komorowski, H., Lewandowska-Czarnecka, A., Wojanowska, J., Lasut, A., Magnuszewska, J., Goliczewski, P. 2007. Microworld gaming of a local agricultural product chain in Poland. Simulation and Gaming. 38 (2) 211-232.

Abstract

Natural resource management of complex, adaptive socioecosystems requires a mix of good practice, policy, science, and intuition. We report here on a rapid and low-cost experiment in Lower Silesia, Poland, using modeling techniques to explore the potential to develop local ecological products. We focus our analysis on one particular group of products related to an “ancient” breed of chicken, the green-legged hen (GLH), with low resource requirements that could support a sustainable agriculture based on lower use of fertilizers and pesticides. The issues affecting farmers’ commitment to adopt GLHs include availability of EU subsidies, the supportive role of NGOs, cooperation between producers, and uncertainty about the future profitability of a relatively untested product. We used this model to evaluate alternative scenarios, nurture the discussion among farmers, and stimulate them to take appropriate action. Gaming with a microworld interface was a crucial breakthrough experience for the farmers to accept and understand the scientific language and methods, and to join the community discussion by actively contributing to improving the model. This positive experience could be a crucial initial step toward the transition from intensive to extensive farming methods, thereby increasing the resilience of natural resource—based rural economies.

Keywords appropriate action, change, collaboration, discussion, ecoagriculture, ecological products, microworld, modeling, participatory model building, production chain, rural economies, socioecosystems, sustainable agriculture, system dynamics, trust, uncertainty

Sendzimir, J., Magnuszewski, P., Balogh, P.; Vari, A. (2007). Anticipatory modeling of biocomplexity in the Tisza River Basin: First steps to establish a participatory adaptive framework. Environmental Modelling and Software 22(5): 599-609.

Abstract

Initial successes in flood control in the Tisza River Basin (TRB) have repeatedly given way to surprising and catastrophic reversals over the past 130 years since implementation of the original Va´sa´rhelyi river engineering plan. Recurrent and parallel crises in economic, ecological and socio-cultural domains of the TRB suggest systemic linkages far broader than imagined in the economic paradigms that drove the reshaping of the TRB. Typical of ‘policy resistance’, these problems have ‘wickedly’ resisted repeated efforts to solve them. Future river basin management needs conceptual and methodological tools to develop more comprehensive models that account for the complexity of the wider diversity of these systemic linkages and the resultant non-linear dynamics. Biocomplexity is one attempt to elaborate a more comprehensive conceptual paradigm. This paper describes how the authors applied a method, causal loop diagramming, as a means to graphically examine what aspects of system structure might generate surprising and counter-intuitive policy reversals characteristic of wicked problems. We applied this method in advance of collaboration with stakeholders as a means to deepen our intuition about the system’s complexity as a way to better prepare to facilitate participatory modeling exercises within the Adaptive Management (AM) tradition. 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Adaptive management; Resilience; System dynamics; Feedback loops; Conceptual models

J. Sendzimir, P. Magnuszewski, P. Balogh, A. Vari, Adaptive management to restore ecological and economic resilience in the Tisza river basin in: Voss, J. P., D. Bauknecht, et al. (2006). Reflexive Governance for Sustainable Development, Edward Elgar.

Abstract

No abstract available

P. Magnuszewski, J. Sendzimir, J. Kronenberg, Conceptual Modeling for Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management in the Barycz Valley, Lower Silesia, Poland, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2005, 2(2), 194-203.

Abstract

The complexity of interactions in socio-ecological systems makes it very difficult to plan and implement policies successfully. Traditional environmental management and assessment techniques produce unsatisfactory results because they often ignore facets of system structure that underlie complexity: delays, feedbacks, and non-linearities. Assuming that causes are linked in a linear chain, they concentrate on technological developments (“hard path”) as the only solutions to environmental problems. Adaptive Management is recognized as a promising alternative approach directly addressing links between social and ecological systems and involving stakeholders in the analysis and decision process. This “soft path” requires special tools to facilitate collaboration between “experts” and stakeholders in analyzing complex situations and prioritizing policies and actions. We have applied conceptual modeling to increase communication, understanding and commitment in the project of seven NGOs “Sustainable Regional Development in the Odra Catchment”. The main goal was to help our NGO partners to facilitate their efforts related to developing sustainable policies and practices to respond to large-scale challenges (EU accession, global changes in climate and economy) to their natural, economic and socio-cultural heritages. Among the variety of sustainability issues explored by these NGOs, two (extensive agricultural practices and “green” local products) were examined by using Adaptive Management (AM) as a framework that would link analysis, discussion, research, actions and monitoring. Within the AM framework the project coordinators used tools of systems analysis (Mental Model Mapping) to facilitate discussions in which NGO professionals and local stakeholders could graphically diagram and study their understanding of what factors interacted and how they affect the region’s sustainability. These discussions produced larger-scale Regional Sustainability Models as well as more detailed sub-models of particular factors, processes, and feedback loops that appear critical to a sustainable future. The Regional Sustainability Model was used to identify a subset of key interacting factors (variables). For each variable, several sustainability indicators were suggested. The growing understanding and acceptance of the AM framework and systems analysis created a momentum both locally and within the region, which makes continued successful use of these indicators quite likely. In contrast to expert-driven projects that inject outside knowledge into a local context, this project established a broad basis for stakeholder-driven discussion that is articulated into goals, objectives, conceptual models, and indicators. The ability to learn and adapt in the AM framework increases the capacity to innovate and find policies and practices that enhance resilience and sustainability in a world in transition.

Keywords: adaptive management, conceptual modeling, sustainability indicators, the Barycz Valley